These two experiences in tech evaluation have come back in an important way this week while reading and watching the Apple iPad announcements, reviews, and commentary. Sometimes it seems that the lead-in to a big product announcement creates a speculation tsunami that makes it almost impossible for the actual release to be viewed with any sense of innovative thought. I am not saying this to set up this articles conclusion as some revelation in thought but rather to emphasize how little variance there really is throughout the "blogosphere" and other media outlets combined. So to cut to the chase, I would like to propose that the general perception is wrong. The iPad will not be killing the Kindle or taking over the entirety of the eReader market, not as its first victim anyway.
iTouch, therefore iPad
The iPad, in its cheapest form, is a large iTouch as it has WiFi but no 3G or 4G radio. It is essentially the Apple netbook that so many pundits have been clamoring for
over the last 12+ months. Anecdotally, I have spoken to many laptop
users who would like nothing more than to give up their clunky laptop
and do everything on their iPhone or iTouch. This is exactly what the
iPad will enable users to do. We already know that email and web
browsing will be very accomplished and the only limitation will be the
lack of Adobe Flash support. This is something I think Apple will need
to resolve if it ever hopes to capture large sections of the corporate
or education market. It will also be vital as Google encroaches on the
iPhone market share with Android phones since the main venue for
playing videos on the Apple platforms is currently the Google YouTube
application. If you couple the existing features of the Apple
platforms with the newest abilities in general word processing (Apple
added a version of iWork to the iPad release) there is little left that
my mom, my father-in-law, or even my CEO would find lacking in the
device for day to day use.
Surf's up! Duuuude

Most of the general users and hopeful users of netbooks express their requirements in the exact same way. "I just want something to surf the web, do email, and maybe watch a movie on a plane and I don't want to spend a ton of money." The iPad fulfills each and every one of these requirements, and then some (as almost everything is now a function of surfing, even email). But that still leaves open the door to performance. Can the iPad outperform a netbook for the same amount of money? This article on CNET that details the A4 processor merits in the iPad versus other competing ARM chips helps explain how Apple can maintain a sustained competitive advantage. Even so, there is still the perception that the limitation of single-tasking from the iPad will somehow reduce the user base and help netbooks fend off any serious iPad assault. I would counter that this mis-evaluation comes from techie geeks (such as me) who are so pumped full of espresso or Mountain Dew that we feel the need to have 5 apps open at the same time. In general (and that word is important when your talking about market share in the consumer world) users are not looking to have that much going on. In fact, even if they feel that multi-tasking is a must have feature they will be sorely disappointed in the multi-tasking performance of your average Windows powered netbook. There are other limitations that are more important to the general user than the ability to multi-task. Camera, memory stick and USB support are three that jump to mind but even those items can be added or sidestepped via bluetooth solutions or WiFi (have you seen Eye-Fi?)
Most of the general users and hopeful users of netbooks express their requirements in the exact same way. "I just want something to surf the web, do email, and maybe watch a movie on a plane and I don't want to spend a ton of money." The iPad fulfills each and every one of these requirements, and then some (as almost everything is now a function of surfing, even email). But that still leaves open the door to performance. Can the iPad outperform a netbook for the same amount of money? This article on CNET that details the A4 processor merits in the iPad versus other competing ARM chips helps explain how Apple can maintain a sustained competitive advantage. Even so, there is still the perception that the limitation of single-tasking from the iPad will somehow reduce the user base and help netbooks fend off any serious iPad assault. I would counter that this mis-evaluation comes from techie geeks (such as me) who are so pumped full of espresso or Mountain Dew that we feel the need to have 5 apps open at the same time. In general (and that word is important when your talking about market share in the consumer world) users are not looking to have that much going on. In fact, even if they feel that multi-tasking is a must have feature they will be sorely disappointed in the multi-tasking performance of your average Windows powered netbook. There are other limitations that are more important to the general user than the ability to multi-task. Camera, memory stick and USB support are three that jump to mind but even those items can be added or sidestepped via bluetooth solutions or WiFi (have you seen Eye-Fi?)
It's so easy, even a caveman......well, you know (copyright avoidance)
Why
is all this important? Who really cares if my family or friends like
the iPad as their primary device? Corporate IT should care that's who.
We have already seen instances where corporate IT will be pestered and
hampered by not providing their users with the same functionality they
can get on their own at home. Major corporations such as Cisco have
already acquiesced to allowing Mac laptops into the enterprise. Many
corporations are no longer buying the mobile devices for users but
instead are simply reimbursing a set dollar amount for mobile packages.
Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube are increasingly going un-blocked by
corporate firewalls due to content necessity and by the simple
competitive fact that new hires find it inconceivable that these
services do not exist in the workplace. The same will occur with the
iPad (forgive the obvious prognostication). New hires will find it
antiquated to move off their iPad from college to the bulky, boorish,
and constrained confines of their "new" corporate laptop.
Follow the money.....
In the end it may be the new Bookstore
that generates the valuable re-occurring revenue for Apple but when
this comes out of the gate in March I will be watching the pace of iPad
sales versus the slowdown in netbook sales, not a drop in Kindle sales.
There are predictions that netbook sales will top 30 million units in
2010 while the eReader market will possibly break 12 million (both
estimates are pre-Pad) Today the iPad and the Kindle-like products are
not in the same class. It is similar to trying to pinpoint the exact
moment when the iPhone kills the Blackberry. Watch that match too
closely and you will miss out on the absolute slaughter of the
Sidekick, Treo, Tilt, and pretty much anything running Windows Mobile
or Symbian. 
I hardly ever leave comments on blogs, but your post called on me to applaud your blog. Thank you for writing this, I'll bookmark your site and check in occasionally. Cheers.
Thanks Brittni. I'm already seeing some validation for my theory. The Economist had an article the same week that dedicated a section on how Netbooks could suffer from an iPad release. The irony came when I read the article the Monday following my post. Had I been keeping up to date with my Economist subscription reading, I could have included the information.
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15391134
Another tidbit came from the Health Care forums on LinkedIn. I have seen several EMR/EHR providers begin touting "iPad Support to come" for medical record software. The drawback is that many of those same vendors need to catchup on the technology of thin clients and SaaS (true Saas) before they can capitalize on an Apple solution. Many of these vendors still consider an RDP session to a Windows 2k desktop as "state of the art". I would like to see my PT with an iPad like device someday soon. He could view my MRI right there with me and even pull up video showing me how to do rehab exercises.
Well I did start this earlier and got the same response, but the information submitted here looks more informative. I will say that people really are trying to help at there best and we always get to know some or the other thing good from each other. Thank you for starting the discussion again. And I will also post the earlier information here to make it more helpful for all. Thanks again and keep up the good work.
I love my new Kindle. We travel all over the world for long periods of time and it is impossible to bring all of the books I enjoy reading since the airlines charges so much for additional baggage. I find it easy to use, easy to purchase and love when I’m standing in an airport and see the newest releases, that I can search on my kindle and usually for under $10 I have the book loaded in about 2 seconds. I would definately highly recommend this item to all who love to read and do a lot of traveling!
I wanted to cross reference this post with the following article from CNET, in case anyone is tracking this entry.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20001820-1.html
Display Search has a diminishing year over year growth projection for Netbook sales. Very interesting.
Also, at the end of this interview by Charlie Rose, with Walt Mossberg of the WSJ, Walt projects Netbooks to be a fad.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10948